We are all going on a summer holiday, no more worries for a week or two.

Today, the focus will be on JP Morgan’s earnings report, which will include Jamie Dimon’s comments about the general state of the global economy, in his opinion at least. As a colleague pointed out to me yesterday, a company the size of JP Morgan able to release its earnings just two weeks after the quarter close is pretty impressive. Yesterday, the latest Consumer Price Index reported the US annual inflation rate running at 2.4% in the US, a 3-year low, but it’s fair to say as the core rate rose to 3.3%, the inflation rate is probably not falling quite as the Fed might have hoped. Generally, the view was that this report would still result in the Fed cutting by 25 basis points at its next meeting in early November. Two-year US treasury yields almost hit 4% in yesterday’s trading, indicating that the bond market is becoming less confident of the pace at which rates will get cut in the coming months. Later today, the monthly Producer Price Index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment may further influence traders’ and speculators’ and offer further clues to the Fed’s likely rates path.

The Vix index and the dollar have been rising ahead of the US election, possibly further indications that the investment community is once again becoming less sure of the path of US interest rates. The Fed minutes revealed that the decision to cut by 50 basis points at the last meeting was not unanimous. What may also be of note is that since Jerome Powell indicated in early July that the Fed were minded to start easing rates, the two best sectors in the S&P 500 for the year up to that point were communications and technology, have been laggards in the overall index.

As we wait to see how Ms Reeves manages the trick of increasing the fiscal burden on households and businesses while still introducing policies to grow the UK economy, Europe, and in particular Germany, continues to struggle. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told reporters in Berlin on Wednesday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to shrink in 2024, meaning Europe’s biggest economy will remain stuck in a recession for the second consecutive year. What is also noteworthy is that whilst Germany, an economy that relies on manufacturing and selling goods, struggles an economy that relies on people going on holiday, Spain is doing jolly well, thank you very much. Apparently, the Spanish economy has grown in line with Germany’s since 2008.