Market Commentary Library

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The Fed finishes 2024 rather as it ended 2023

This will probably be my last post of the year as I take a break over the festive period 2024. The US...

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To cut or not to cut that is the question

Ahead of the Fed later today and the Bank of England tomorrow, both central banks have been given reasons why they could...

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Will the Bank of England deliver some Christmas cheer?

The final full week before the Christmas break will not be a quiet one. The central banks of the US and UK...

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Whats going on

A colleague and I have just spent two days at a Nasdaq investor conference, where we met with a varied selection of...

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Bitcoin, one way to look at it

Bitcoin is a divisive topic; some believe in it, and others think it is just another example of a speculative bubble, the...

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The bears are hibernating for winter it would seem.

Before we discuss the events of the past week and the week ahead, I want to point you to a piece we...

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Theres a kind of hush

The last month of the year feels like it has started where the previous months left off on a positive note. Just...

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A rising tide does not flaot my boat

Monthly retail sales data recorded a sharp drop in November, which is probably further evidence that the nation is concerned about the...

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The bulls are on a charge

Despite concerns about interest rates, tariffs, and some mixed economic data, as the Citi economic surprise index shows signs of rolling over...

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Happy Thanksgiving

So the saying goes: When the US economy sneezes, the world catches a cold. Likewise, when Wall Street takes a day off,...

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Trump reassures markets with the appointment of a heavy weight as Treasury secretary

Media comments from Donald Trump briefly rattled the market as he appeared to double down on his tariff threats. Trump pledged on...

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Buffets cashing in as many investors go to the races.

Last week’s rather indifferent UK economic data did not stop the FTSE 100 from having one of its best weeks in a...

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Use it or lose it

Nvidia, post the results was probably the least exciting thing that happened to technology shares yesterday as the news that the US...

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Nvidia tonight, are they now more important than the Fed

Tonight, Nvidia reports its earnings; some commentators apparently consider the report more important than the Fed’s rate decision. Some investment opportunities often...

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Trump trade takes a breather as the market focus turns to inflation fears

The adrenalin rush for US stocks came to a halt this week as the S&P 500 and the treasury market reacted to...

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Weak growth has the market unimpressed

In his speech last night, Jerome Powell might be backing off the idea of a Fed cut in December. October CPI and...

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Tomorrow is yesterday today

The adrenaline rush in US stocks has been on since the US election result came to a halt yesterday, as stocks in...

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Back to life, back to reality

It was a very busy week with the weekend press full of the implications of a Trump second term. One can easily...

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Trump two, equity and bond markets had opposing views

We now know, and by a resounding victory, that Mr Trump will be the next President of the United States, again defying...

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America goes to the polls

By the time anyone reads this, we may know who will hold the keys to the White House for the next four...

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Whats new pussy cat

For better or worse, for richer or poorer, we now know the outcome of the budget and who is taking over the leadership...

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Just keep moving down the bumpy road

That was not much of a month for bond or equity investors here or across the pond. US treasuries fell as the...

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Water in the freezer ultimately becomes ice.

The day has finally arrived; we will find out what Ms Reeves has in store. I have been reading Sapiens, written by...

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“Me and my guitar will sing to you, Oh little Rachael oh”, Eric Clapton

Tesla’s results helped drag the NASDAQ back into positive territory by the end of the week; however, it failed to pull the...

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The wait is nearly over

Tesla helped stocks recover on Thursday. The stock rose over 20% on the day after the company reported better earnings than expected...

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Watch out that those wings do not melt

JP Morgan strategists claim the stock market has more to run, while Goldman’s says the best days for returns are behind us,...

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Stocks expensive, investors remain bullish, here comes another week

The S&P 500 managed another positive week, if only just. It is still early days for the earnings season, and so far,...

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Another day another dollar

Predicted by almost everyone who predicts these things anyway, as the headline rate of inflation fell below 2% and growth in the...

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Theres good news and theres other news

Earnings season is producing a mixed bag. Banks have done well; anything consumer-influenced, not so much. Semiconductor chips for anything AI-related have...

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Ready for another week?

Despite US treasury yields rising across the curve this month, US equity prices continue to hold their own. With most sectors making...

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We are all going on a summer holiday, no more worries for a week or two.

Today, the focus will be on JP Morgan’s earnings report, which will include Jamie Dimon’s comments about the general state of the...

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S&P fights back as oil slips back

The S&P 500 showed all the signs of repeating the last two months by starting the month on a negative note and...

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US equities running out of steam?

Friday’s US jobs report suggested an employment market in rude health, as almost 100,000 more jobs were created last month than the...

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Ladies and Gents oil muddies the water

The price of oil, which so far has shown surprisingly limited reaction to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, did jump...

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Plenty to focus on for investors

So far, the threat of increased geopolitical tensions has had a limited impact on global equity markets or the oil price. Some...

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Q4, how did we get there so quickly

Stock market porridge is tasting just right; Friday’s US PCE index, as any journalist cannot fail to add, “the Fed’s preferred measure...

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The cup spilith over

The sense of optimism around the globe for stocks was very apparent as we look forward to the final quarter of the...

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Chinese authorities another attempt to boost the flagging economy

Wall Street managed its 41st high this year as the Chinese authorities attempted once again to reignite their economy. One Bloomberg journalist...

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You got to know when to hold them, and know when to fold them

The debate amongst financial journalists has gone from whether it will be 25bp or 50bp, now we know it is 50bp, to...

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Powells cup is more than half full

Jerome Powell’s cup was not half full but overflowing with joy as he described the prospect of inflation heading back down to...

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Its a new dawn a new day and I’m feeling good

We will get the Fed’s decision later today. Will it be 50bp or 25bp? The danger is that whatever the Fed does...

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In a tree by the brook, there’s a songbird who sings,sometimes all of our thoughts are misgiven. Led Zep

Last week’s further fall in the headline US  inflation increased the odds of 50bp. Ahead of their meeting, we get US retail...