This could well be the last blog of the year whilst I compose my thoughts for the year ahead. On Christmas morning you may hope to open many things, my blog is not likely to be one of them.
As we rapidly approach the season of goodwill equity markets are trying to hold a year-end rally. The final estimate for US GDP for the third quarter came in at 2%, slightly ahead of expectations. Next year one suspect will be one where good economic news is good news and bad is very bad, for stock markets. This will be in sharp contrast to previous years. Later today the US durable goods orders report may well impact the strength of the Santa rally.
Each year, post the crisis; we seem to lurch from what feels like the edge of one precipice to another, only to pull back. One gets the feeling 2016 could well be more of the same. The recent years it has rotated between, China, Greece or US interest rates. So far it’s been right to hold ones nerve through these tricky times. We shall see as 2016 develops if this will be the case again. Some how we feel the next precipice is likely to be a different one to previous years. What ever it is, some will describe it as a black swan event, the likelihood is that will be so obvious most of us will miss it until it hits us.
I wish everyone a Merry Christmas and good tidings for 2016.